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2. Weather Averages

3. Climate Drivers

Climate Drivers

Philippines Regional Climate Analysis

Nov - Dec - Jan 2025/2026

Quick summary (one-paragraph)

Under a weak La Niña + established Amihan, expect generally cooler, breezier and drier conditions over northern Luzon compared with the wet season peak, while the southern Philippines (Mindanao and adjacent islands) is more prone to active convective bands because the ITCZ and MJO pulses favor equatorial convection. The moderately enhanced subtropical high to the northeast strengthens northeasterly trades that tend to suppress convection over the north and central islands and produce rough seas; when MJO pulses arrive they can temporarily overcome that suppression and trigger heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in the south and central Philippines. Overall, rainfall is likely biased north–south: reduced in the north (trade-wind influence), near-normal/variable in the central islands, and above-normal in the southern islands (frequent convective bands / ITCZ influence), with episodic heavy rainfall and elevated marine hazards throughout the period.

Driver-by-driver explanation

1) Weak La Niña — how it matters

What it does: La Niña shifts tropical convection and sea-surface-temperature patterns so that convection and tropical cyclone activity often shift westward in the western Pacific basin. It also increases the likelihood of enhanced rainfall over some parts of the Maritime Continent and the western Philippines during some seasons.
Effect here: Under a weak La Niña, the Philippines can see enhanced convective activity in or near the southern and central sectors at times (higher chance of clusters of heavy rain). It raises the odds of near- to above-normal seasonal rainfall for southern Mindanao and parts of the central Philippines while generally not increasing temperatures (sea-surface anomalies cool slightly).
Operational notes: La Niña increases the probability of tropical disturbances forming/tracking closer to the Philippines in some seasons; during Nov–Jan that primarily means a non-zero chance of late-season tropical systems (rare but possible) and more frequent convective outbreaks in the equatorial zone.

2) Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) established in early November

What it does: Amihan brings prevailing northeasterly to easterly trade winds across northern and central Philippines, promoting cooler, drier air advection (especially nights and mornings) and producing orographic trade-wind showers on east-facing slopes.
Effect here: Northern Luzon and much of central Philippines will generally become drier and breezier after the Habagat ends — fewer sustained wide-area convective episodes, clearer skies at times, and lower daytime humidity. Coastal east-facing areas will still see enhanced showers due to orographic uplift from the northeasterlies.
When it matters most: Nov (transition month) can still see residual moisture; by Dec–Jan Amihan is usually better-established, and its drying effect over northern Luzon is stronger.

3) MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) pulses — intermittent influence

What it does: The MJO is a large-scale eastward-moving disturbance of enhanced (wet) and suppressed (dry) convection across the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. When an MJO wet phase arrives over the maritime equatorial region it can substantially increase rainfall and thunderstorm activity for a week or two.
Effect here: MJO pulses during Nov–Dec–Jan preferentially boost convective activity in the southern Philippines and nearby seas (where the ITCZ is near). An active MJO phase can temporarily overwhelm the drying effect of Amihan locally, producing multi-day heavy-rain episodes, gusty storms, and higher flood risk in the south and central islands.

4) Moderately enhanced subtropical high to the northeast

What it does: The subtropical ridge (Pacific subtropical high) is a semi-permanent high-pressure area. If it becomes moderately stronger and located northeast of the Philippines, it reinforces northeasterly trade flow, reduces low-level moisture convergence over northern islands, and can steer or block tropical disturbances.
Effect here: Expect sustained stronger NE trade winds, cooler mornings in the north/central areas, suppression of broad-area convective growth over northern Luzon, and increased chance of longer periods of stable weather there. The subtropical high also raises sea-state risk (higher wind waves on exposed coasts and shipping lanes to the east and northeast).

How the drivers interact (mechanisms)

Amihan + subtropical high (north/central suppression): When the subtropical high is stronger it reinforces Amihan trades — this amplifies dry, stable conditions over northern Luzon and inland central islands, especially at low levels where northeasterlies advect drier air.
La Niña + ITCZ/MJO (southern enhancement): La Niña often biases convection westward and favors ITCZ activity over the equatorial and southern maritime regions; when the MJO's wet phase moves through, it can substantially amplify convective rainfall over southern Mindanao and the Sulu/PI region.
Transient overrides: MJO pulses or a passing tropical disturbance can temporarily overcome the subtropical-high suppression, producing heavy rain even in central/northern islands for short periods. These are episodic but can carry most of the period's heavy-rain hazards.

Region-by-region expected effects (Nov–Dec–Jan)

Northern Philippines (northern Luzon, Cagayan, Batanes)

Temperature: Cooler mornings and slightly reduced daytime maxima compared with the summer; Amihan and enhanced trades are the dominant influence.
Rainfall: Below to near-normal seasonal rainfall overall because of the suppressing effect of Amihan and the subtropical high; most rain will be in the form of localized trade-wind/orographic showers on east-facing slopes and occasional frontal or disturbance-driven events.
Winds & seas: Sustained northeasterly winds at times; rough seas on east/northeast coasts and for shipping lanes (heightened small-craft advisory risk).
Hazards: Short-lived heavy rain remains possible when a disturbance passes; otherwise primary concerns are marine (high seas, strong winds) and cooler nighttime temperatures for sensitive crops.

Central Philippines (Visayas, northern Mindoro to southern Luzon)

Temperature: Mild cooling relative to the wet-season peak; nights more comfortable with stronger NE flow.
Rainfall: Variable — neither as suppressed as the north nor as enhanced as the far south. Expect trade-wind showers, periodic breaks, and episodic heavier rain when MJO pulses or localized disturbances occur.
Marine & transport: Inter-island ferry services may be disrupted during episodes of high seas; ports on exposed coasts see higher wave heights.
Hazards: Localized flooding and landslides possible where heavy convective bursts fall repeatedly (especially during MJO wet phases); plan for intermittent maritime impacts.

Southern Philippines (Mindanao, Sulu, Zamboanga, Tawi-Tawi)

Temperature: Warm and humid, little seasonal cooling because equatorial convection dominates.
Rainfall: Most likely above-normal for the Nov–Jan season due to ITCZ proximity, La Niña tendency for enhanced equatorial convection, and periodic MJO wet pulses — expect frequent rainy days and many convective downpours.
Hazards: Elevated risk of flash floods, river flooding, and landslides in hilly catchments after heavy rain; repeated convective bursts can saturate soils rapidly. Marine hazards include rough local seas and poor visibility during storms.
Operational note: MJO wet phases can produce multi-day heavy-rain clusters; monitoring for flood alerts is advised during those times.

Month-by-month nuances (Nov → Dec → Jan)

November (transition month): Amihan becomes established; still some residual moisture from the recent Habagat early in the month. Expect variable conditions: the north clears and breezes up; south can already be active under ITCZ/MJO influence.
December: Amihan and subtropical-high effects strengthen (drier/breezy north/central). Southern Philippines most likely to see repeated convective activity and higher rainfall totals; watch for MJO pulses that temporarily increase raininess.
January: Amihan typically fully established; north/central remain dominated by trade-wind regime with lower seasonal rainfall, while the southern islands continue to receive ITCZ-related convection and MJO-driven episodes when the MJO is active.

Likely hazards & practical guidance

Southern Philippines: highest flood/landslide risk during heavy convective clusters and MJO wet phases — maintain flood readiness, clear drainage if possible, and monitor local watches.
Central Philippines: anticipate intermittent ferry disruptions, short-term heavy rains causing localized flooding — avoid travel during advisories.
Northern Philippines: main risks are marine (high seas, strong NE winds) and cooler nights; agriculture may see reduced moisture for rain-fed crops but also reduced risk of widespread flooding.
Tropical systems: although overall typhoon frequency declines towards boreal winter, a weak La Niña raises the westward bias and thus the Philippines should keep standard tropical advisory readiness in mind (monitor official warnings).

Short checklist for local stakeholders

Fisherfolk / mariners: expect stronger NE winds and rough seas at times; check daily marine forecasts and small-craft advisories.
Flood-prone communities in the south: test/inspect flood defences, keep emergency kits ready, and clear river channels if safe to do so before MJO wet phases.
Farmers: consider protecting newly planted short-cycle crops in the south from heavy rains and in the north plan for cooler, drier windows that may reduce disease pressure but also reduce rainwater availability.
Emergency planners: monitor the timing of MJO pulses and local agency advisories; even a strong subtropical high can be suddenly offset by a tropical disturbance that brings heavy rain.

Remember: The weather drivers described alter probabilities and tendencies — they do not guarantee specific daily outcomes. Local, short-term forecasts (PAGASA and regional forecasts) should be consulted for day-to-day operations and warnings.

Climate Outlook Summary

The Philippines faces transition during Nov-Dec-Jan 2025/2026, with a confirmed weak La Niña event and the arrival of the North East Monsoons.

The combination of these factors creates moderate probability of tropical cyclone activity in the region and strong storm systems in isolated events. The MJO pulse may arrive within the events east propogation during Nov-Dec-Jan in the south if conditions persist and ITCZ propogation expansion may also affect the south .

4. Global Warming

Global Warming Effects

Philippines Climate Analysis

2025/2026 Projections

Key Areas

Rising temperatures in Hot Summers.
Slow Sea level rise from global warming
Isolated Extreme weather events
Ecosystem disruption
Water resource challenges
Agricultural negative effects

Risk Legend

High Risk - Significant potential risk

Moderate Risk - Noticeable risk expected

Low Risk - Minimal risk expected

Global Warming Outlook for the Philippines in 2025

The Philippines faces multiple severe impacts from global warming in 2025, with rising temperatures in El- Nino summers, slow steady sea level rise, and isolated extreme weather events being the most significant concerns.

The combination of these factors creates a high probability of coastal flooding, agricultural disruption, and health risks that could significantly effect the nation's economy and population becoming more of a problem in Hot Warm/Humid Summers.