USA spring neutral to la-nina 2024 transition.
- ENSO Primer North America.
- ENSO patterns.
- Forecasting ENSO affects.
- Grading ENSO.
- ENSO Spring to Winter North America.
- Current Status ENSO North America 2024.
ENSO forecast for Spring 2024 Nth America Neutral.
ENSO forecast for Spring 2024 Nth America Months/Temps.
Primer of the ENSO neutral to la-nina transition North America 2024 spring.
ENSO is the primary driver of weather in many of the worlds locations . This article helps to explain the ENSO transition taking place for the USA during spring 2024 and a few months thereafter and how ENSO affects North American weather. Firstly there are 3 phases of the ENSO that begin in the east and west Pacific equatorial areas having a time span throughout the year of differing durations. These ENSO phases have an influence on what may typify and influence weather in North America and are known as weather drivers.
The ENSO patterns.
- La Nina conditions Wetter weather, convection and warm waters in the PNG region near the equator and dry and hotter weather with cooler waters east in the Peru coastal pacific regions. In the West equatorial pacific (PNG) the thermocline is deeper near the surface of the sea, in the East equatorial pacific (Peru) is a shallower thermocline. The Trade winds system across the equatorial pacific is weakened from the normal pattern and some times reversed. La nina years are linked to Mudslides, Inundation, Floods and Storms in the West Pacific equatorial areas depending on the strength and duration of the event, and dry-hot drought conditions in the East Pacific equatorial areas also depending on the strength and duration of the event.
- El Nino conditions the descriptions from a La-Nina above are reversed. Drier and Hotter in the PNG regions with cooler waters at the west pacific equator and a shallower thermocline near the surface of the PNG seas. In the East (Peru Coastal) more rain, and convection and the thermocline near the sea surface in Peru pacific waters is deeper. El nino is linked to dry hot weather, droughts, and wild fires in the PNG regions with Wetter Weather, Floods, Mudslides in the Peru coastal regions dependent on phase strength and durations.
- Neutral conditions the go between weather phase at neither of the phases above but exhibits a La Nina like pattern. Is the transition phase between El nino - La Nina.
ENSO forecasting.
Determining the enso phase of weather assists in medium and long range forecasts to some extent, as weather forecasters use historical and scientific data to assess what weather a large area could expect given the current phase of ENSO and the regions weather season they are in such as a 2024 Neutral spring for the USA. Forecasters use a range of skills and data to gauge how this influences weather attached to the particular ENSO type and ENSO phase and tell us what chances are that a phase/type may happen and when and for how long. Lastly the enso forecasts estimate how this affects a given regions weather and what a area can expect.
ENSO grading.
There are different strengths associated with each of El-Nino and La-Nina patterns and one cannot make a long term forecast for these they are usually collated after the event has taken place. Historically there is a link with natural disasters for the public from Strong/Very strong El-Nino years and Strong/Very Strong La Nina years. These are the strengths types for La Nina and El Nino years.
- Weak.
- Medium.
- Strong.
- Very strong.
North America ENSO Spring and 2024.
Overview of USA neutral ENSO for 2024: Using the information detailed above we can say that : In a neutral phase of the ENSO april 2024 like above (Main Image) for the USA there is a forecasted gradual transition from a neutral ENSO april 2024 to a above average chance of La-Nina end of year for the US second Winter 2024. As such the neutral phase of ENSO will affect the USA weather in 2024 as in the Main Image as long as the neutral phase of ENSO is in effect for the spring stage. Moving to the La-Nina phase will then change the weather outlook over the USA accordingly (Forecasted to might happen in the USA second winter of 2024). Another option is that the current neutral phase may last out longer past the USA autumn 2024 to the tail end of 2024 or into early 2025 moving the timing of the forecasted La-Nina in the Pacific equator where the ENSO is prominent. We can see an understanding of the ENSO is useful.
Current status for ENSO for Sept 2024:
The current status of ENSO in Sept 5th 2024 still sits at Neutral so a La-Nina is not yet active although favoured to happen in the second USA winter of 2024 , the ENSO forecast for the above main image was taken from April 2024 ENSO data (US spring).
A recent XMAS 2024 update has the Nth American area in a weak La-Nina for the second winter of 2024 (NOAA) as also in some regions a temperature reversal will take place.
Likewise the ENSO outlook for this time of the North American 2024 winter will change from the Spring ENSO forecast shown at the top.
Hurricane Rafael Nov 7th 2024 (Gulf storm report):
Further news for nearing the middle of Nov 2024 has a Gulf of Mexico storm set to arrive over the next few days from Thurs Nov 7th (South East Gulf waters) to Mon 11th Nov (West Gulf waters) 2024 and is designated Hurricane Rafael on Thurs Nov 7th 2024 by NOAA.
Currently 7th Nov 2024 Rafael has a central pressure of 969mb and 90kt surface winds with an additional 15 percent gusts stronger at surface (Thanks Tropical Tidbits). Wave heights may be 15ft + near the system centre with the system taking a near west path from the North West of Cuba over the next few days into the Gulf waters then terminating on Mon 11th Nov 2024 onwards at Nth East Mexico waters.