USA spring neutral to la-nina 2024 transition.

Example of the ENSO neutral to la-nina transition pattern.

ENSO is the primary driver of weather in many of the worlds locations . This article helps to explain the ENSO transition taking place for the USA during spring 2024 and how ENSO affects North American weather. Firstly there are 3 phases of the ENSO that begin in the east and west Pacific equatorial areas having a time span throughout the year of differing durations.

• La Nina conditions Wetter weather, convection and warm waters in the PNG region near the equator and dry and hotter weather with cooler waters east in the Peru coastal pacific regions. In the West equatorial pacific (PNG) the thermocline is deeper near the surface of the sea, in the East equatorial pacific (Peru) is a shallower thermocline. The Trade winds system across the equatorial pacific is weakened from the normal pattern and some times reversed. La nina years are linked to Mudslides, Inundation, Floods and Storms in the West Pacific equatorial areas depending on the strength and duration of the event, and dry-hot drought conditions in the East Pacific equatorial areas also depending on the strength and duration of the event.
• El Nino conditions the descriptions from a La-Nina above are reversed. Drier and Hotter in the PNG regions with cooler waters at the west pacific equator and a shallower thermocline near the surface of the PNG seas. In the East (Peru Coastal) more rain, and convection and the thermocline near the sea surface in Peru pacific waters is deeper. El nino is linked to dry hot weather, droughts, and wild fires in the PNG regions with Wetter Weather, Floods, Mudslides in the Peru coastal regions dependent on phase strength and durations.
• Neutral conditions the go between weather phase at neither of the phases above but exhibits a La Nina like pattern. Is the transition phase between El nino - La Nina.

Determining the enso phase of weather assists in medium and long range forecasts to some extent, as weather forecasters use historical and scientific data to assess what weather a large area could expect given the current phase of ENSO and the regions weather season they are in such as a 2024 Neutral spring for the USA. Forecasters use a range of skills and data to gauge how this influences weather attached to the ENSO phase and tell us what chances are that a phase may happen and when and for how long.

There are different strengths associated with each of El-Nino and La-Nina patterns and one cannot make a long term forecast for these they are usually collated after the event has taken place. Historically there is a link with natural disasters for the public from Strong/Very strong El-Nino years and Strong/Very Strong La Nina years. These are the strengths types for La Nina and El Nino years.

• Weak.
• Medium.
• Strong.
• Very strong.

Overview of USA neutral ENSO for 2024: Using the information detailed above we can say that : In a neutral phase of the ENSO april 2024 like above (Main Image) for the USA there is a forecasted gradual transition from a neutral ENSO april 2024 to a above average chance of La-Nina end of year for the US second Winter 2024. As such the neutral phase of ENSO will affect the USA weather in 2024 as in the Main Image as long as the neutral phase of ENSO is in effect for the spring stage. Moving to the La-Nina phase will then change the weather outlook over the USA accordingly (Forecasted to might happen in the USA second winter of 2024). Another option is that the current neutral phase may last out longer past the USA autumn 2024 to the tail end of 2024 or into early 2025 moving the timing of the forecasted La-Nina in the Pacific equator where the ENSO is prominent. We can see an understanding of the ENSO is useful.

Current status for ENSO for Sept 2024: The current status of ENSO in Sept 5th 2024 still sits at Neutral so a La-Nina is not yet active although favoured to happen in the second USA winter of 2024 , the ENSO forecast for the above main image was taken from April 2024 ENSO data (US spring).