ASIA HUMIDITY & WEATHER OUTLOOK · SUMMER 2026
Updated surface humidity and summer weather factors — June–September 2026 · neutral ENSO shifting toward El Niño, new southwest monsoon, active East Asian Trough periods, northward ITCZ, MJO pulses, tropical thermal waves and Indian Ocean / Southeast Asia heating.
Summer humidity regime · colour coded
g/kg
hot/dry breaks: 7–10
continental variable: 9–12
northern moistening: 8–13
monsoon belt: 14–17
equatorial / SEA: 18–22
hover regions to highlight
summer drivers
Southeast Asia / Indian Ocean heating 18–22 g/kg
Southwest monsoon belt 14–18 g/kg
ITCZ moving northward active rain bands
Equatorial MJO / thermal waves burst rainfall
EAT trough periods China/Japan storms
Retreating polar vortex N Asia thaw
ASIA summer pattern
humid south
mixed northern troughs, hot continental breaks, monsoon moisture surges
monthly humidity progression
Asia‑wide summer specific humidity (g/kg)
regional summer humidity
typical seasonal g/kg by region
coastal vs inland summer
coastal/equatorial moisture remains dominant
| Location / region | Summer 2026 humidity regime | Main weather factor | Temperature / heat signal | Rainfall / convection signal | Wind / trough influence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok / Central Thailand | 18–21 g/kg | Southwest monsoon + Gulf moisture | Hot, oppressive heat index during sunny breaks | Afternoon storms; stronger during MJO or ITCZ pulses | SW/W winds, sea-breeze convergence |
| Ho Chi Minh / Mekong | 19–22 g/kg | Equatorial heating and monsoon inflow | Very humid tropical heat | Frequent deep convection and heavy storm bursts | Monsoon westerlies, occasional tropical waves |
| Jakarta / Indonesia | 20–23 g/kg | Warm Maritime Continent + MJO modulation | Persistently warm, high overnight humidity | Wet bursts during active MJO; breaks when suppressed | Light/variable to westerly surges |
| Mumbai / West India | 17–20 g/kg | Southwest monsoon onset and Arabian Sea moisture | Heat eases once monsoon cloud/rain arrives | Heavy coastal rainfall, but El Niño risk favours breaks | Strong W/SW monsoon winds |
| Chennai / South India | 15–18 g/kg | Bay of Bengal moisture, thermal troughs | Hot and humid, sea-breeze storms | Patchy convection; enhanced by tropical waves | SE/SW coastal circulations |
| New Delhi / North India | 10–14 g/kg | Monsoon advance vs hot continental breaks | Severe heat before rainfall, humid heat after onset | Delayed or uneven rains possible in El Niño transition | Monsoon trough pulses, dust/outflow gusts |
| Shanghai / East China | 15–18 g/kg | Meiyu front + EAT interaction | Humid, cloudy, warm | Heavy frontal rain and mesoscale convective systems | EAT trough dips and subtropical ridge edge |
| Beijing / North China | 10–13 g/kg | EAT swings and continental heat lows | Hot spells alternating with cooler trough passages | Thunderstorms when trough energy meets humidity | N/NW trough surges, southerly moisture return |
| Seoul / Korea | 13–16 g/kg | Changma front, EAT and subtropical ridge | Humid heatwaves between frontal episodes | Prolonged rain periods and storm clusters | Frontal winds, occasional northerly surges |
| Tokyo / Japan | 14–17 g/kg | Baiu front + Pacific moisture | Humid, warm, muggy nights | Rainy-season pulses; later typhoon moisture risk | EAT/Pacific ridge steering |
| Novosibirsk / Siberia | 8–12 g/kg | Retreating polar vortex and thawing boundary layer | Warmer days, longer heat windows | Convective showers where troughs cut south | Westerly troughs, polar-air retreat |
| Tashkent / Central Asia | 7–10 g/kg | Continental drying and heat-low influence | Hot, dry heat with brief storm risk | Mostly dry; mountain convection on trough days | Dry westerlies, occasional upper troughs |
| Tehran / Iran | 6–9 g/kg | Subtropical subsidence and dry heat | Hot, dry, dusty spells | Low rainfall except mountain thunderstorms | Dry NW/W winds, thermal lows |
| Riyadh / Arabia | 5–8 g/kg | Desert heat and subsidence | Extreme dry heat | Very limited convection away from highlands/coasts | Shamal/dust episodes possible |
| Summer weather factor | Primary Asia impact | Humidity effect | Regions most affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retreating polar vortex | Reduces deep cold-air hold over northern Asia while leaving periodic trough intrusions | Allows higher boundary-layer moisture over Siberia and northern China during warm episodes | Siberia, Mongolia, North China, Korea |
| Neutral to El Niño transition | Raises risk of uneven monsoon rainfall and hotter breaks later in summer | Moisture stays high in tropical south, but rainfall efficiency can become patchy | India, Southeast Asia, Maritime Continent |
| Southwest monsoon beginning | Moves Arabian Sea / Bay of Bengal moisture inland | Strong increase in coastal and monsoon-belt g/kg values | India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Indochina |
| East Asian Trough activity | Triggers frontal waves, storm clusters and cooler trough passages | Focuses humidity into rain belts along frontal boundaries | China, Korea, Japan, Russian Far East |
| Northward ITCZ migration | Shifts convective rainfall bands north through the tropics and subtropics | Raises humidity and afternoon storm potential across the monsoon tropics | Bay of Bengal, Indochina, South China, Philippines |
| Thermal waves / heat lows | Produce hot surges and unstable afternoons | Can either cap storms inland or trigger violent storms where moisture is present | India, China interior, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam |
| MJO activity near Asian equator | Creates 1–3 week wet/dry pulses across the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean | Active MJO phases increase deep convection and moisture convergence | Indonesia, Malaysia, equatorial Indian Ocean, southern Thailand |
| SE Asia / Indian Ocean heating | Strengthens tropical moisture reservoir feeding monsoon surges | Maintains very high dewpoints and high specific humidity across maritime Asia | Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, South China Sea, Maritime Continent |
Data guide: updated qualitative summer 2026 outlook using current ENSO, monsoon, MJO and regional seasonal signals
updated June 2026 · visualisation for Asia summer humidity and weather factors
summer 2026 replacement complete humidity and weather factors updated monsoon / EAT / ITCZ / MJO integrated