Tonga El-Nino Flyer verification.
Tonga El-Nino year Flyer 2023-2024 summer overview.
As Tonga is a small island outlet the Hovmoller covers a wide region of the Tonga area with much of the area sea, the Land Wetness will explain things more accurately over the El-Nino time span for Tonga and other areas. In other words the following Hovmollers Humidity Day-Night/Rainfall Averaged amounts monthly may also show areas outside Tonga in the surrounding sea
As part of the verification process to help build our online weather service we have researched the August 2023 paper we released to the South Pacific before a forecasted El - Nino summer for the south pacific from Oct 2023 to March 2024.
What we discovered used the Hovmoller graphs and data for Night time Relative Humidity, Precipitation rates, Soil Wetness for areas of the South Pacific over the months of Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, March 2023-2024 summer for the south pacific. The Spatial extent of this research area is the entire south pacific region in the El-Nino Summer of 2023-2024 and sometimes localised charts.
We also employed the historical data from local weather stations to verify down to the local spatial extent weather in the south pacific as explained in this article.
Our weather flyer was released to the South Pacific in August of 2023 as we had researched and concluded in assoc with other weather services (NOAA) that a El-Nino year would affect the south pacific in the 2023-2024 summer months. The flyer gives pertinent information in managing areas affected by the El-Nino year and this article gives the verification for The East South Pacific area the French Polynesia areas for the 2023-2024 southern summer. We had outreached to water services and other govt departments with the information to attempt to secure funding for our online service.
What we found is quite revealing in that stakeholders often said to us
- Who are we?.
- What is it we do?.
- How can we prove what it is we are saying?.
This article is a powerful reminder that a weather service does not take these type of information releases in a hap hazard way and also the fact that weather forecasts of this temporal extent are not an exact science but can be used as a overall guide none the less. The verification of the flyer information is a powerful statement to back up what we included in the flyers weeks before the El-Nino unfolded in the south pacific for 2023-2024 and also to further enhance them.
Precipitation for Tonga El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
We refer now to the Averaged South Pacific Surface Precipitation Hovmoller chart for the former El-Nino year for the south pacific 2023-2024 and this corresponds with the Tonga wider area and is startling for our accuracy we have explained in our Flyers for the Tonga El-Nino Years.
From Early Oct 2023 to Mid dec 2023 in the Tonga Area very little rainfall fell, the Tonga area received very little rain days but alot more Hot and Cloudy days with dynamic humidity levels above the baseline of 60 percent also present at night (Flyer adjustment).
Then from Mid Dec 2023 to Late Feb 2024 some rainfall/clouds in the Wider South West South Pacific with mix of sun and clouds and dynamic humidity levels above 60 percent not enough to relieve the drought.
In the end of the El-Nino summer in early 2024 (March) cloud may have increased in the South West South Pacific the Area of Tonga and has included rain in the area here (Nukualofa wider region).
This area of precipitation placed over the Tonga Main Isles area signalled a time of more rainfall in the area from Mid Feb 2024 for at least 1 month past this the dispersion of which is over 330nm in length from 19s to 20s (Longitude) and 177 Deg 00w to 171 Deg 00w. The main Tonga Isles only represent 1/40th of this total area.
Weather observations of rain charts for Tonga Main Island 2023 - 2024:
- With none rain in Oct Nov 2023 then some rain in Nov 2023 with more cloud and sun days..
- In Dec 2023 Very little rain in the Main Island of Tonga Nukuaalofa.
- Then in Jan 2024 some rain with more sun/cloud days.
- In Feb 2024 Tonga then underwent a dry spell again with a little rain for the area Fuaamotu Tonga in the whole month.
- Then at the end of the 2023-2024 summer in Tonga for March a parched Tonga then received the March 2024 rainfall to start the 2024 Autumn as the area began moving to a ENSO nuetral as we had said.
This data shows that Tonga underwent a mini drought for the 2023-2024 El-Nino summer that was relieved in March 2024 Just as we had explained weeks before the arrival of the El-Nino summer.
Humidity for Tonga El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
From the Time series of Early Oct to Early Nov 2023 Day Humidity levels show that in the Tonga region there where intervals of Dynamic Humidity levels above 60 percent and Sun/cloud that began the Tonga mini drought along with Humidity. Then in the middle of the south pacific El-Nino summer in Tonga from Nov 2023 to Feb 2024 very little rain fell in the Tonga regions and the area was Hotter/Humid in the days and Humidity at night dynamic above 60 percent in relation to Day Humidity levels from the Hovmoller chart (Nukualofa).
Then in the ending of Summer to March 2024 Tonga gained a lift in Day humidity levels that may correspond with a increase in rain/clouds precipitation at the end of the El-Nino summer (March) for 2024 in Tonga possibly linked to the influx of warm waters from the North East current and sun heating of the warm waters that releases energy at night in Cooling/Evaporation/Localised patterns.
October 2023: Between 50-77 percent Humidity.
Nov 2023: Between 70-90 percent humidity rate lifts on rain clouds.
Dec 2023: Between 60-95 percent humdity rates.
Jan 2024: Higher Humidity on brief thunderstorms sometimes lower in sun and cloud days, cloud and sun days also mid humid.
Feb 2024: Between 70-95 percent humidity.
Nukualofa TON.
Fishing for Tonga El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
We mentioned that due to the increase in Sun (El-Nino summer) there could be cooling (subsidence) in the Tonga region but this would be offset by Higher Dynamic Humidity and the washing in of warmer waters from the North East of Tonga.
Possibly gradually over weeks this may have led to a lesser capping off of the Thermocline that would be felt more after XMAS 2023.
The Thermocline may be flattened as oppossed to deeper then usual leading to some height change to the surface in a El-Nino year in the Western Pacific that could lead to a increase in Tuna and Fisheries. Sun and fine days and fisheries are a good mixture in a El-Nino in some areas of the West Pacific.
This may happen also mechanically due to the east struct of the Islands forming a natural wall for water to rise against in addition to the flattened thermocline. Upwellings are driven by upwards current.
There was information to support the western flattening of the thermocline in a EL-Nino and is different to an upwelling.
Only infield tests in a El-nino can confirm. We are confirming tests yet to be done to further this area.
Horticulture 2023-2024 summer.
We now turn to the surface soil wetness Hovmoller to finalise this report for planting for the South West South Pacific and for the time span of the 2023-2024 El-Nino in the Tonga wider area was certainly drier based on what this Hovmoller is saying to us just like we had said. The chart reveals that from Early Oct 2023 Tonga began feeling the effects of the El-Nino drying out the land that continued on to Mid Jan 2024. Then at the end of the 2024 El-Nino summer for the Tonga area was a gradual better uplift in soil moisture with increasing rains/cloud cover (Feb 2024 - March 2024) as the area came out of the summer drought.
In our flyer we said that Tonga would receive less rainfall in the El-Nino Summer for 2023-2024 in the Rainy section from Nov-April. This certainly applied for 2/3 of the El-Nino summer we can verify at the beginning to the middle of the EL-Nino Summer.
We also gave a number of important announcements for Tonga to help prepare and all of these items where correct based of what we have found from our Hovmoller diagnosis and thesis.
Planting Stone fruits and being harder to manage Taro due to dryness of the soil in a El-Nino summer which is correct.