Tahiti El-Nino Flyer verification.
French Polynesia El-Nino year Flyer 2023-2024 summer overview.
This is the first sample release the full verified version will be released by end of First week Jan 2025 Happy New Years everyone. We are excited about the prospects of the site this year.
As part of the verification process to help build our online weather service we have researched the August 2023 paper we released to the South Pacific before a forecasted El - Nino summer for the south pacific from Oct 2023 to March 2024.
What we discovered used the Hovmoller graphs and data for Night time Relative Humidity, Precipitation rates, Soil Wetness for areas of the South Pacific over the months of Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, March 2023-2024 summer for the south pacific. The Spatial extent of this research area is the entire south pacific region in the El-Nino Summer of 2023-2024.
We also employed the historical data from local weather stations to verify down to the local spatial extent weather in the south pacific as explained in this article.
Our weather flyer was released to the South Pacific in August of 2023 as we had researched and concluded in assoc with other weather services (NOAA) that a El-Nino year would affect the south pacific in the 2023-2024 summer months. The flyer gives pertinent information in managing areas affected by the El-Nino year and this article gives the verification for The East South Pacific area the French Polynesia areas for the 2023-2024 southern summer. We had outreached to water services and other govt departments with the information to attempt to secure funding for our online service.
What we found is quite revealing in that stakeholders often said to us
- Who are we?.
- What is it we do?.
- How can we prove what it is we are saying?.
This article is a powerful reminder that a weather service does not take these type of information releases in a hap hazard way and also the fact that weather forecasts of this temporal extent are not an exact science but can be used as a overall guide none the less. The verification of the flyer information is a powerful statement to back up what we included in the flyers weeks before the El-Nino unfolded in the south pacific for 2023-2024 and also to further enhance them.
Precipitation for French Polynesia El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
The Hovmoller total surface precipitation graph for Papetee Tahiti shows that from early October to mid-November 2023 there was very little precipitation, but the El Nino effect became prominent from late November 2023 to late December 2023 , precipitation amounts for the region then increased on a medium scale. Then from early January 2023 to March, variable amounts of rain with more rain in January/February 2024 followed.
This indicates that in the EL-Nino Summer 2023-2024 in French Polynesia there was Mid to Mild Rain by precipitation amounts with an outer band of lighter precipitation and an inner band of slightly more precipitation that covers a spatial area of the entire north to south FR polynesia section from the Equator south to 25S and the West and East extent of the French Polynesia Longitudes.
Weather observations of rain charts for Papeete Tahiti 2023 - 2024:
- October 2023: More cloudy and sunny days than rainy days.
- November 2023: A mix of rainy days and sunny, cloudy days.
- December 2023: A mix of rainy days and sunny, cloudy days.
- January 2024: More mix of rainy days, a few thunderstorms and a few cloudy and sunny days.
- February 2024: Clouds and sun in early February then early February-mid February, with more rainy days changing to minimal rainy days with sun and clouds in late February 2024.
- March 2024: Early March 2024 Clouds and sun changing to a few days of showers and clouds and sun then a thunderstorm. From mid-March to the end of March 2024, more sun and a few days of sun and clouds for Papeete.
Hovmoller surface precipitation totals indicate for the entire East South Pacific area (FR Polynesia) that precipitation increased slightly during the last third of summer for the region in 2023/2024 (El-Nino) for the area 3S to 17S (Latitude) in the Tahiti Isles region.
The result of this check is surprising: the central north equatorial zone nth east of Kiribati maintains the king of precipitation rates for the duration while for this section of the East South Pacific El-Nino 2023-2024 it received some precipitation but less precipitation than the king, but in a wider north and south dispersion on the last section of the Hovmoller for FR tahiti in the last 1/3 of summer 2023/2024.
Probably indicating the presence of a Semi Permanent Convergance zone in the area of Zone 3 Tahiti Chain during the El-Nino months of 2023-2024.
In our flyer we indicated more rain in the equatorial area of the target region and was correct (Nth East of Kiribati).
We also said that there would be more rain in the Summer months of 2023-2024 for the Eastern South Pacific but we cant determine if the El-Nino Event was weak-meduim-strong-very strong so took a wider approach based of what we had already heard had unfolded in the regions of Tahiti lately. We said was possible for light surface flooding as also possible for A cyclone to pop up although very rare to affect the main Island of Papetee, due to the large expanse of the area and the small footprint of the Tahiti islands areas of land and population never the less a powerful system still provides a large wake region.
We also cautioned the Tahiti islands chain region to stay on alert due to a El-Nino change weeks before the event and how to prepare accordingly and mentioned Humid Nights affecting the area (True).
Humidity for French Polynesia El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
Relative Humidity affected the Tahiti chain in the Last 1/2 of the El-Nino Summer being lat Dec 2023 to Jan-Feb-March 2024 from amounts of 70-90 percent in the entire Tahiti Spatial region East South Pacific as we fortold although not in an exact science as we said.
Fishing for French Polynesia El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
We mentioned that Tuna may migrate due to warmer waters elsewhere OR dwell deeper in Tahiti waters in the El-Nino summer of 2023-2024 which could be true and verification of which is outside this study. We cannot verify the thermocline status of the area in the El-Nino summer as yet but scientifically a continual current of warm surface waters tend to drive the thermocline deeper and prevent upwelling and the thermocline is dynamic and adept to change via the SST temperatures.
You will experience warm waters near the equator most certainly in this study of the El-Nino 2023-2024 via the transport from east coastal Peru (East to West). In a El-Nino year the transport sends warm water into the Central Pacific Equator area that certainly affects the thermocline by natural water circulation via a warm current of water travelling through North Tahiti waters. Other Tahiti currents may distribute this elsewhere in the region usually by Island Atolls altering the flow thereby making localised disbursement of currents.
Horticulture 2023-2024 summer.
We mentioned that there would not be adequate sun days to grow stone fruits and to better manage Taro crops and leafy greens would do well in this time which would apply to the last 1/2 of summer in the region Tahiti Chain regions that is partly correct.
According to the surface soil wetness Hovmoller this can be verified for the Tahtiti region bands we have mentioned from 10S to 17S latitude in the Northern section of the Tahiti Island Chain.
This data showed that for the months of Dec-Jan-Feb-March 2023/2024 that the region of North Tahiti received very wet soils that are land based indicating rainfall as we had instructed in our Tahiti flyers although not an exact science. Between 10S and 15S latitudes in the North Tahiti chain.
So based of this finding the Northern section of Tahitis do well with this flyer planting information and the further south you go in the chain the drier and less rain affects the soil (Past 17S Latitude) in the months of Dec-Jan-Feb-March 2023/2024.
This Soil Wetness information from the Hovmoller indicates that Papetee the Main Island sits just south of the wettest soil region of the El-Nino last 1/2 summer months (The South Marquesas) within a wetness transistion area with medium Wet soil rates ideal for Taro growth but stone fruit require much sun so possibly will not yeild such a sweet outcome in Papetee. The information we provided therefore for planting may for this round of el-nino apply to the Areas North of Papetee to the South Marquesas and to an extent to the Main Island pursuant to daily/weekly adjustments and monitoring at the main Island (Papetee).