Samoa El-Nino Flyer verification.
Samoa El-Nino year Flyer 2023-2024 summer overview.
As Samoa is a small island outlet the Hovmoller covers a wide region of the Samoa area with much of the area sea.
As part of the verification process to help build our online weather service we have researched the August 2023 paper we released to the South Pacific before a forecasted El - Nino summer for the south pacific from Oct 2023 to March 2024.
What we discovered used the Hovmoller graphs and data for Night time Relative Humidity, Precipitation rates, Soil Wetness for areas of the South Pacific over the months of Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, March 2023-2024 summer for the south pacific. The Spatial extent of this research area is the entire south pacific region in the El-Nino Summer of 2023-2024 and sometimes localised charts.
We also employed the historical data from local weather stations to verify down to the local spatial extent weather in the south pacific as explained in this article.
Our weather flyer was released to the South Pacific in August of 2023 as we had researched and concluded in assoc with other weather services (NOAA) that a El-Nino year would affect the south pacific in the 2023-2024 summer months. The flyer gives pertinent information in managing areas affected by the El-Nino year and this article gives the verification for The East South Pacific area the French Polynesia areas for the 2023-2024 southern summer. We had outreached to water services and other govt departments with the information to attempt to secure funding for our online service.
What we found is quite revealing in that stakeholders often said to us
- Who are we?.
- What is it we do?.
- How can we prove what it is we are saying?.
This article is a powerful reminder that a weather service does not take these type of information releases in a hap hazard way and also the fact that weather forecasts of this temporal extent are not an exact science but can be used as a overall guide none the less. The verification of the flyer information is a powerful statement to back up what we included in the flyers weeks before the El-Nino unfolded in the south pacific for 2023-2024 and also to further enhance them.
Precipitation for Samoa El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
The extent of the target area is 590 nm wide to either side of the Samoas chain sitting within 9S to 17S. The isles take a central part to this extent Latitude based and the data is time averaged Rain Rate for the Samoas extent via Hovmoller time chart from Oct 2023 to March 2024.
Accordingly the extent had a dry start to the El-Nino summer from Oct to Beginning of Dec 2023. Then at beginning of dec to mid Dec 2023 partial rain. Then a few weeks of little rain from Mid Dec 2023 to near Mid Jan 2024 then after this rain days increased in the extent. After Middle of Feb 2024 less rain days.
Dry in the Samoas first 1/3 then mix in 2/3 then more rainier in last 3/3 going into a drier end of summer towards March 2024. El-Nino summer months Samoas.
We will Sample Two weather stations in Samoa one in the Nth West and one in the south east.
Weather observations of rain charts for Nth West of Samoas Main Island 2023 - 2024:
- October 2023:Many sun and cloud days and minimal rainfall. Dynamic Humidity above 70 percent most days into the night.
- Nov 2023:Small amount of rainfall, more sun and cloud days, a stray thunderstorm here and there. Dynamic humidity above 70 percent most times more humidity in rain days.
- Dec 2023:Sun and cloud days greyed, Increase in rain, Stray thunderstorm here and there. Humidity remains same.
- Jan 2024:Increase in cloud cover, Some rain days, Some Thunderstorms, Humidity levels at base levels.
- Feb 2024:Rain and cloud cover in first 1/2 of month then going into cloud and sun for rest of month.
- March 2024:Many Cloud and Sun days very little rain in March.
Weather observations of rain charts for South East of Samoas Main Island 2023 - 2024:
- October 2023:Sun and Grey Clouds more of, little rain.
- Nov 2023:A few hrs of Heavy rain, Mostly Grey Clouds and Sun, Stray brief Thunderstorm.
- Dec 2023:Cloud and sun to begin to middle of month then some rain days to end of month with a stray thunderstorm.
- Jan 2024:Cloud and sun to begin to middle of month then some rain days with a stray thunderstorm.
- Feb 2024:Even mix of rain days and sun and cloud days.
- March 2024:More sun and cloud days with some rain days.
Over the north west and south east section of the Samoas maintained the same weather pattern being a dry start to the summer of 2023 in October then moving into a wetter end of Nov that took them into a wetter Dec 2023. Then in Jan 2024 this precipitation event slowly tapered of into a drier March 2024 event.
So precipitation wise this was a balancing act for the samoas in the El-Nino summer 2023-2024.
A mini drought happened in the South East of the Island that was delayed to March and Autumn of 2024 We did mention there was going to be one. Then in the Nth West of the Island a Mini Drought for 2/3 of the Autumn months of 2024. Our forecast for a drought was delayed somewhat and began at the end of summer 2024 in March and applied to the south east of the Island more then the north west.
Humidity for Samoas El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
On Hot and Cloudy days the expansive seas store energy and coupled to winds may produce a dynamic that produces Humidity levels in excess of 60 percent. Due to the Tropical locale of the Island this extenuates Humidity. Add in Rainy days and Thunderstorms then Humidity levels are a constant during a El-Nino summer.
At night the sea releases this stored energy in the form of Humidity that may result in above 60 percent night release of humidity that also gets helped by light winds.
Fishing for Samoas El-Nino year 2023-2024 summer.
The sea currents move warmer waters into the Northern Section of the central pacific equator and possibly the region of the Samoas in a El Nino.
In a El Nino year the sea currents move from the west eastwards to the central Pacific equatorial area and from Peru east of Samoas westwards to the central Pacific equatorial. It is at this central equator area that warm waters build. By Nov 2023 in a El Nino summer this will place the Samoas just south of the region of rapid sea warming but the warmest SST remains over Tahiti North and Peru West Coastal. This will then place the thermocline up to 100 - 300m deeper in the area of the North Samoas Waters getting warmer SST the further north you travel in the El Nino. By Jan 2024 there would have been a cooling off of SST. Currents can redistribute the SST dynamically as the weeks move on.
Warm waters cap the thermocline so fish (Tuna) either stay deeper or relocate to feed.
Horticulture 2023-2024 summer.
The information we released for the Samoas would have applied for the Autumn section of 2024 after and during March 2024 due to a delayed Drought in the South East of the Samoas. Next the information for planting might have applied to the North West region of the Samoas who under went 2/3 of a drought in a delayed Drought from March 2024 onwards for 4 months.
We will introduce a new category of Planting as such from our findings of 1/4 Dry 2/4 Getting Wet 3/4 Wet 4/4 Drying El Nino summer pattern being veggies that far well in Humid and Hot and Rainy days so in this El Nino instance plant veggies that do well in Humidity/Rain/Sun and Cloud mix for example.
- Eggplant.
- Tomatoes.
- Peppers.
- Cucumbers.
- Long Beans.
- Sweet Potatoes.